It’s not always easy to predict a trend in any entertainment industry. You can predict some off shorter term trends with some accuracy, but trying say what will be trending and popular this time next year can be nearly impossible.
Still, services like Future Pulse definitely attempt to do that and use scientific data to make their predictions. This is as accurate a method as anyone has come up with for determining music industry trends.
Some of the data that is looked at by services like these is the increase of popularity or change in popularity of musical genres. A recent study showed that Pop, EDM, Hip Hop and Rock are all toppings charts. Some of these are very wide-ranging genres, and Pop will probably always be near the top if not the top just because how expansive it is. Imagine trying to find similarities between Adele and Lady Gaga, and yet their music both tends to fall into the same category of music, so it’s difficult for any other genre to topple that one, but you do see intermittent trends where a particular artists or group of artists will break through in their respective genre and get a little push to the top for a short period of time.
EDM has risen up the charts quickly over the past few years, where it used to be not nearly as popular. The rise of music platforms online like YouTube has ensured that the kind of songs that would be relegated to clubs and dancefloors are now accessible to everyone, and that has permitted a once stagnant genre to reach more people and gain greater popularity.
Hip Hop music has long had its struggles and used to be seen as niche and targeted to teenagers, but thanks to its prevalence in major films, the genre has skyrocketed in the last few years, always staying near the top. There are so many artists operating in this genre now that it seems impossible it will ever lose its place among the top few spots.
So, how will all these genres vie for dominance over the next few months and years? The data suggests that Pop will falter here and there while the others in the top few will spike every soften. Hip Hop or EDM could easily take the top spot for a period of time, but Pop appeals to the masses more than those other genres, as does Rock. Rock has seen a small decrease in popularity recently, but that’s barely a blip on the radar. It’s one of those genres that has enough staying power it will likely never leave the top five or six spots. Of course, look at geographic popularity of genres paints a different story too, and that may need to be factored in to give a better picture of what the world as a whole is going to choose as the favored genre moving forward.
There is also some indication that a dark horse could make its way through the ranks and temporarily steal the limelight, as happens from time to time with a major hit that makes waves. But thanks to the YouTube generation’s short term attention, that never lasts for long.